Mixed Predictions About Wearables Like Smartwatches and Google Glass

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Google this year introduced Android Wear, a special version of its mobile operating system tailored for smartwatches.Credit Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

The wearable computing market will be huge. Actually, it’s a passing fad. (Remember the netbook?) Or it will be a modest hit.

Or we have no idea.

After Google introduced Android Wear, a special version of Android tailored for wristwatches embedded with miniature computers, or smartwatches, several prominent research firms made predictions about where the devices were headed. The projections were all over the map.

IDC, the tech research firm, is bullish about the wearable computing market, which includes smartwatches, connected glasses and fitness devices. It noted that the devices were stirring so much buzz that they were landing on the pages of mainstream publications like GQ and Wired. IDC estimates that this year, more than 19 million wearable computing devices will ship, triple the number last year. By 2018, IDC predicts, shipments will swell to about 112 million.

Forrester Research, on the other hand, thinks wearables have a short shelf life. James L. McQuivey, a Forrester analyst, said in aresearch report that interest in wearable devices would probably rise next year but could decline as early as 2016.

By that year, he says, features offered by wearable devices will be duplicated by other devices, like smartphones and headphones with sensors embedded inside them, so people will quickly lose interest. He compared the impending rise and fall of wearables to the fate of the e-book reader, MP3 player and handheld camcorder, which were all supplanted by devices like smartphones and tablets.

NPD DisplaySearch, a research firm that tracks shipments of displays, has a more complex prediction. It foresees that the wearables market will grow to 91 million devices next year, up from 48 million this year. After that, the market will cool down when consumer hype dies down.

But after that, sales could surge again, when the devices catch on in China, similar to what happened with smartphones and big-screen TVs there, says Paul Gray, director of European TV research for NPD DisplaySearch.

It’s safe to say that the jury is still out.

Apple, a company that has a track record for creating new mainstream markets, has yet to release its wearable device. Itssmartwatch, which will probably include wireless charging and have a strong focus on health monitoring, is expected for release in the fourth quarter.